The race to build the “ultimate” electric car is heating up. Every month, it seems another electric car company joins the fray to offer a car stylish enough to attract the Tesla crowd, and affordable enough to meet the growing demand from China, the United States and Europe.
It has solid backing, from a broad range of top venture capital and Internet companies like Sequoia and Tencent.
2. Its Silicon Valley R&D facility is led by Padmasree Warrior, “The Queen of the Electric Car” and she’s rapidly attracting top tech talent from the likes of Tesla and Apple.
Last month, I attended the grand opening of NextEV Silicon Valley and interviewed its founder, William Li. He shared his “Blue Sky” ambition (he means it literally) and how his grandfather inspired him to go from cattle herder to Internet multi-millionaire. It was the first interview he’d ever done in English. I filed this report for the BBC World Service’s Tech Program, Click.
Here’s a transcript from today’s program, with some great insights from host Gareth Mitchell and BBC contributor, Bill Thompson. The transcript has been edited for length and clarity:
BBC Host, Gareth Mitchell: One event that did happen was the recent launch of yet another electric vehicle outfit in California. This is the Silicon Valley division of a Chinese startup called NextEV. The champagne flowed and the ribbon was cut – the digital ribbon – but our reporter Alison van Diggelen was most interested in the economics of it all. You don’t need to be an investor to know just how risky these ventures are as the technology gradually matures. In California and China state funding and tax breaks are all part of getting these businesses off the ground. Alison tracked down NextEV founder, former cattle herder and now big time entrepreneur, William Li.
Alison van Diggelen: At NextEV’s Silicon Valley launch, William Li confirmed that onNovember 21st, NextEV will reveal its first supercar in London. The electric car is expected to offer a 0-60 acceleration in under three seconds. Its Formula E racing team has used a dual-motor setup on its race car, and it’s likely to be a feature of the supercar. (The top speed of the sleek two-seater will be over 180 mph, and its price is likely to be equally extravagant!)
NextEV is late join to the electric car race. So how does Li intend to challenge Tesla and the dozens of electric car companies popping up worldwide?
William Li: Tesla is a great company, I respect them. But Tesla was founded 2003. Lots changed. It’s a mobile internet era. We can do better to communicate with our users, give our users a much better holistic user experience.
He aims to do for the car what Apple did for the smart phone.
He learned a lot about user experience from Bit Auto, a popular web portal in China and his first business success. He’s now built a global startup – with facilities in Beijing, Shanghai, Silicon Valley, London and Munich. The global workforce is 2000.
In Silicon Valley, its 250-strong team of auto and software experts is growing rapidly. U.S. CEO Padmasree Warrior – former CTO at Cisco – is hiring experts in artificial intelligence, voice interaction and user interface from the likes of Tesla, Apple and Dropbox. Warrior says they’re already working on affordable cars for China’s burgeoning demand.
Padmasree Warrior: In China, There’s a large shift happening … Environment issues are driving the government to look at electric vehicles as part of the solution… It’s healthier for the environment to drive an electric vehicle.
China is offering generous tax incentives to electric carmakers and consumers, driving a flood of companies into the space. NextEV recently signed an agreement with the Nanjing Municipal Government in China, to build a $500 million factory to build electric motors.
Similarly in Silicon Valley, a fleet of electric car companies has chosen to locate here, thanks to state tax incentives and the strong talent base. These include Tesla, Atieva, and Le Eco.
I spoke with California’s Director of Economic Development, Panorea Avdis. She explained how state policy is helping reduce greenhouse gas emissions, by focusing on the tech industry…
Panorea Avdis: The goal is to have 1 million electric zero emission vehicles on the road by 2020.
(Today, California has about 300,000 electric cars, about half of the nation’s total.)
Alison: NextEV secured $10M in tax credits. Tell me why that’s cost effective for the people of California.
Panorea Avdis: The return on investment…nearly 1000 jobs in the next 5 years, speaks for itself. California is leading the way, there’s no other state in the union that has this type of aggressive polices and it’s really inspiring this innovation in technology to come forward.
But making cars is notoriously hard. News broke this month that Apple is shelving its electric car plans to focus on self-driving software.
William Li knows it’s a tough road ahead. He gives his company just over a 50% chance of success.
As a boy, Li was a cattle herder in China. He’s come a long way and credits his grandfather’s wisdom:
William Li: [Speaks first in Mandarin ] The journey is more important than the result. So follow your heart….your original wish. Don’t worry about failure.
Like Tesla’s Elon Musk, Li is concerned about climate change and also the dense smog in Beijing and Shanghai. He blames polluting gas-guzzling cars.
NextEV’s brand in China is called “Way-Lye”
William Li: It means blue sky coming. That’s my original wish.
It’s an ambitious goal that could be a very long way off, especially in China’s congested and polluted cities.
Gareth Mitchell: That’s Alison van Diggelen reporting from Silicon Valley. So Bill Thompson – the journey is more important that the result?
Bill Thompson: The result is much more important than the journey here, because unless we get much cleaner public and personal transport, then we’re in big trouble. It’s really good to see another serious entrant in this market. It’s not sewn up yet by anyone. As we heard there about Tesla, there’s no first mover advantage because the technology is developing so quickly.
We know Padmasree Warrior’s reputation for delivering. She’s been on the show a few years back. She was senior at Motorola, then went to Cisco. They’ve got really good people.
But the really interesting part of this is what happens in China. In China because they have much more control over what people can do. The government can actually mandate a move to electric vehicles much more easily than they ever could in California and that gives a great market. So NextEV may be getting money and expertise over in Silicon Valley, but it’s what happens in China that’s really interesting.
Gareth Mitchell: I was interested in the economics side of the piece: the reliance partly on state funding to get these businesses going.
Bill Thompson: Occasionally state funding helps. You might have heard of this little thing called the Internet, kicked off with defense department funding from the US. It did pretty well by being able to rely on that funding for a critical period while it developed and then was able to be used by the private sector. One or two of these examples of it actually working…
Today began with news that Apple was in talks with British carmaker McLaren about a possible acquisition, linked to Apple’s “Project Titan” electric car. Rumors were later squashed by McLaren, but attention is still on Apple’s autonomous car plans and speculation is mounting.
Meanwhile, my friends at the BBC invited me to share my (verified) interview with new electric vehicle company, NextEV. This Chinese startup, with a growing R&D facility in Silicon Valley has just come out of stealth mode and plans to reveal its “supercar” in November. When I interviewed Padmasree Warrior, CEO of NextEV USA last month, she couldn’t reveal the specs of the car, but my investigations concluded that it would be autonomous. This week, her spokesperson confirmed that both the first generation NextEV cars, to be manufactured in China, and those to be made at a manufacturing facility in the U.S. will be autonomous.
Listen to my report at the BBC’s Business Matters. Our electric/autonomous car discussion starts at 32:46.
Here’s a transcript of our discussion and my report (edited for length and clarity)
BBC Host, Anu Anand: Apparently Apple is NOT in talks with McLaren as reported by the Financial Times. This all underscores the feverish speculation about driverless car technology and where the major tech companies like Apple are putting their chips and what they’re doing to prepare products for this market. This is something you’ve been looking at too, isn’t it Alison?
Alison van Diggelen: Absolutely.Apple is notoriously secret…It’s well known they’ve been working for two years on the electric car (Project Titan). The latest speculation says they may be in talks with a San Francisco startup called Lit Motors. There is a race for electric vehicle talent and Apple recently laid off dozens of its team and is looking to fill that gap. I’ve been talking with NextEV, a real electric car maker that’s just coming out of stealth mode. Its CEO, Padmasree Warrior, invited me to visit its brand new R&D facility in San Jose. Here’s my report:
The race for affordable electric vehicles is heating up around the world. Here in Silicon Valley, just 10 miles from the factory where Tesla makes its electric cars, NextEV, an electric vehicle startup is racing to get on the track. Former CTO at Cisco, Padmasree Warrior now leads the U.S. facility of this global startup with operations in China, Germany and the UK. Despite her lack of car experience, Warrior’s bold approach to beat Tesla in China is earning her the name: “Queen of the electric car.”
Padmasree Warrior:When you think about cars in the old paradigm…people used to talk about Horse Power…we think in the future people will talk about ease of use, user interface, Artificial Intelligence. And so the shift from HP to AI is one of the shifts that we will embrace much more rapidly. Our opportunity within China is to combine all of the capabilities from the mobile Internet to focus on user experience – from ownership, to maintenance to post ownership services.
NextEV US headquarters in San Jose is 85,000 square feet. When remodeling is complete, it will house a 10,500 square feet auto lab.
Alison van Diggelen: Energized by NextEV’s $1Billion in funding, Warrior and her Silicon Valley R&D team has gone from zero to 160 employees in about 9 months. It has attracted auto and software experts from the likes of Tesla, Apple and Dropbox. It’s this focus on the software that Warrior hopes will differentiate her products in a crowded race. She suggests that the touch screens on NextEV cars will be more actively utilized than Tesla’s and the car will automatically “know who’s driving it.”
New team member skill-sets suggest that features will include voice interaction and autonomous driving.
I asked her if building an attractive car was important too?
Padmasree Warrior:This is why we have a design center in Munich; we have an amazing industrial design team and styling expertise… We believe European design is unbelievably superior in the consumer product space.
Alison van Diggelen: NextEV’s founder, Chinese Internet billionaire William Li has a global strategy that aims to leverage each location’s comparative advantage and use virtual reality tools to make sure that all its teams are driving forward together.
Padmasree Warrior:Silicon Valley is obviously the place to be for looking at technology, looking at disruptions. China’s expertise is manufacturing, supply chain…obviously the market is there.
NextEV hopes to make a flying start in the Chinese market next year, but is keeping the specs of its cars under wraps, until the “supercar” is revealed before the year end. Co-President Martin Leach confirmed that their cars willdefinitely be cheaper than Tesla’s.
He spoke to me from NextEV’s London office:
Martin Leach: We’re not making a company for ultra millionaires and billionaires and then trying to transition the company to a more affordable solution…the supercar plays a role in our overall strategy, and is being developed alongside our other mainstream products… from day one.
The “living wall” in NextEV US Headquarters in San Jose, CA
With about 200 electric car companies in China alone, NextEV’s William Li has put his company’s chance of success at just 5%, but that doesn’t deter Warrior.
Alison van Diggelen: Although the odds are against her, Warrior – who’s known as a champion for women in tech – is following her own advice to women in business:
Padmasree Warrior: Be confident, go for what your dreams are. Sometimes, we second guess ourselves, we stay with what is comfortable rather than what we really desire to do. Take risks wisely, but take risks.
Alison van Diggelen: Her team in Silicon Valley is putting pedal to the metal to make it happen…
Continue listening to the podcast (@38:00) to hear our discussion about driverless car fears and the impact of this week’s Department of Transport guidelines for automated cars.
Will the fatal Tesla crash slow or even derail the development of self-driving cars? That was the topic we discussed on this week’s BBC World Service program, Click.
Despite complaints by consumer advocates that Tesla should disable its autopilot feature and not beta test “an unproven technology” on the public, Tesla is standing by its strategy. Today the BBC’s Dave Lee reported from the Gigafactory that Elon Musk has no regrets about how Tesla rolled out the autopilot.
“We have the internal data to know that we improved people’s safety, not just in fatalities but in injuries.” Elon Musk, CEO Tesla at Gigafactory, July 26 2016.
Remarkably, federal regulators at the Department of Transport (DOT) and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) appear to be siding with Tesla and urging a “full-steam ahead” approach. They’re focused on self-driving technology’s potential to save lives.
“No one incident will derail the DOT and NHTSA on its mission to improve safety on the roads by pursuing new life saving technologies. We…can’t stand idly by while we wait for the ‘perfect.’ We lost 35,200 lives on our roads last year. We’re in a bad place and we should be desperate for new tools that will help us save lives. How many lives might we be losing if we wait?” Mark Rosekind, Head of the NHTSA at the Automated Vehicles Symposium, July 20 2016.
The NHTSA is expected to release its new guidelines for self-driving (autonomous) cars any day now. I’ll post a link to them here as soon as they’re available.
Listen to our Tesla autopilot discussion below or at the BBC Click Podcast. The first broadcast aired on the BBC World Service at 2:30pm PST on July 26th.
Here’s a transcript of our discussion (a shorter version aired on the BBC).
BBC Click Presenter, Gareth Mitchell: Now the first death of a Tesla driver on autopilot earlier this year was bound to overshadow the recent Automated Vehicle Symposium in San Francisco last week. But those at the meeting were also looking forward, at the latest innovations in driverless cars. BBC contributor, Alison van Diggelen was there for us, and she’s been telling me a bit more about what was being discussed.
Alison van Diggelen: The 3-day symposium assembled some of the top government authorities, academics and tech experts in the field of automated vehicles. The main topics included: the promise and challenges of automated vehicles; the federal guidance about to be released; and whether the Tesla crash will derail the development of automated vehicle technology. Mark Rosekind Head of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (“Nitsa”) spoke about all three topics and emphasized the technology’s potential to save lives.
Mark Rosekind: We’re not in a good place that we’re trying to make better. We lost 35,200 lives on our roads last year. We’re in a bad place and we should be desperate for new tools that will help us save lives. How many lives might we be losing if we wait? We have to do everything we can to make sure the new technology doesn’t introduce new safety risks, but we also can’t stand idly by while we wait for the “perfect.”
Reports around the country seem to be sounding the alarm: they are shocked, shocked (!) to discover there’s vehicle automation that’s already here…they’re demanding to know: where was the government to stop this?
We know there will be incidents that occur with highly automated vehicles and NHTSA will always be ready to use its authority to investigate and take whatever action is necessary
New highly automated vehicles offer enormous opportunities for learning…When something goes wrong,…that data can be taken, analyzed and the lessons can be shared with all automated vehicles.
No one incident will derail the DOT and NHTSA on its mission to improve safety on the roads by pursuing new life saving technologies.
We’re writing the Declaration of Independence, not the Constitution. It’s the first step that will lay the road map to the next generation of vehicle technology – a harmonized approach not just across states but perhaps even internationally. It’s an approach that’ll provide certainty to manufacturers, to make sure you’re focused on safety in the right ways.
We see a future where disabled people can reclaim independence and freedom in a personal vehicle. We even see a future when a fully automated car can relieve the occupants of all driving responsibilities, leave them free to read a book, make a phone call and yes, catch a few more Pokemon.
Gareth Mitchell: There was also talk of innovation, refining the technology and one UK voice in particular. Who was this, Alison?
Alison van Diggelen:Ian Forbes is head of the Center for Connected & Automated Cars, a joint policy unit of the UK government. I chatted to him briefly after his presentation, where he gave a flavor of the opportunities and challenges ahead. Forbes played a short video that showed a junction in a UK city. The simulation showed that connected & autonomous vehicles bunch closer together when they approach the red light. This means that when the light turns green, more cars can go through, making that junction more efficient. He says it was a result they weren’t expecting…and they expect further simulations will help predict other benefits of self-driving cars. He also talked about the importance of public perceptions and behavior. They’re starting a 3 year study…
Ian Forbes: In the UK we share a problem with everyone in this room. Like everyone here, we can see the potential benefits: fewer crashes, more efficient transport, new high value jobs. It’s also likely we face the same challenges: how do you design a regulatory framework when so much of the future technology is uncertain? How do you get maximum value for your research so that it delivers something new? One tool in our toolbox is Micro-simulation using agent based models to understand the impact of different transport scenarios to inform our future transport traffic predictions.
Gareth Mitchell: Finally Alison, the meeting was overshadowed by the tragic death of a driver in autopilot mode in a Tesla. What kind of reflections were there about how that leaves the whole driverless project?
Alison van Diggelen: I spoke with a number of conference attendees from the academic and tech worlds, including Bob Denaro, a member of United States’ Transport Research Board (TRB) and venture capitalist advisor to Motus Ventures. He reframed the the Tesla crash in its historical context, talking about the Wright brothers and one of their early passenger deaths, during a demo for the U.S. army. So I think that gives the Tesla crash an interesting historical context. He and a lot of people said, this seems a disaster short term but in the long term, it’s going to be a small bump in the road.
Bob Denaro: If we look at early days of aviation – the Wright brothers killed (one of) the first passengers….Frankly I’ve been surprised that the public reaction has been more muted than I feared it would be…I don’t think it’s going to be that big of an impediment to our progress and the speed of our progress.
The traditional automotive approach is: let’s test exhaustively over years and then put it on the market. Sometimes we make mistakes…maybe there are fatalities, recalls…The approach that Tesla is taking is: let’s put it out there early, before it’s completely done – let’s learn quickly, and because of the software updates over the air, let’s make changes…They may be on to something there.
My advice to Elon Musk would be: yes, be careful, make sure you test it, understand the results…But this approach – as different as it is to the traditional approach – just may be a better approach to minimizing the accidents we have to have along the way before we get close to perfection.
Bonus material:
Ian Forbes shared a video that didn’t make the final cut. With a little help from Queen Elizabeth and a humorous Tweet, he sent ripples of laughter throughout the global audience. Here’s the transcript (it’s a wee bit awkward).
The Queen (via video): My ministers will ensure the United Kingdom is at the forefront of the technology for new forms of transport, including autonomous and electric vehicles.
Ian Forbes: That was the Queen, in the UK, back in May setting out the future legislative program of the UK government. My favorite response was on Twitter: Ah Britain – the only parliament in the world where someone turns up in by horse drawn carriage to promise everyone else driverless cars.
This week, I listened live to Tesla’s latest earnings call and was gobsmacked at Elon Musk’s audacious new goal to build half a million cars per year by 2018.
“This is based off the tremendous demand received for the Model 3, which I think is actually a fraction of the ultimate demand, when people fully understand what the car’s capable of….Tesla is going to be hell-bent on becoming the best manufacturer on earth.” Elon Musk
But how on earth is Tesla going to perform this ambitious ramp up in production? It’s a 1000% increase in Tesla’s 2015 production level (approx. 50,000 Model S and Xs). Here’s one more clue from Elon Musk, at the end of the conference call:
“We believe that there’s more potential for innovation in manufacturing, than there is in the design of the car by a long shot.” Elon Musk
Tesla’s Alexis Georgeson took me inside the Tesla factory last week to share some insights as to how this “mission impossible” just might be done.
BBC Host, Rory Cellan-Jones: This week, the entrepreneur behind the Tesla cars made an extraordinary promise to his investors. He said his company would manufacture half a million cars a year by 2018. Given the fact that Tesla has missed much smaller production targets in the past this seemed, well, brave. But as Alison van Diggelen reports from Silicon Valley, Elon Musk is confident that this time, things will be different.
Alison van Diggelen: Tesla Motors astounded the auto industry last month when it received over 400,000 reservations (325,000 in the first week) for its new Model 3, an “affordable” all-electric car. In response, CEO Elon Musk just announced a production goal of half a million cars by 2018.
Elon Musk: My desk is at the end of the production line…I have a sleeping bag in the conference room… which I use quite frequently. The whole team is super focused on achieving rate and quality at the target cost, so I feel very confident in us achieving that goal.
Alison van Diggelen: I visited the Tesla factory in Silicon Valley to find out how they can deliver on time and in such huge numbers. Though beloved by fans, Tesla is also notorious for production delays.
Last year, the company spent over 1.5 Billion dollars in capital. Its cash burn-rate looks unsustainable. With General Motors coming out with a longer range electric car later this year and other competitors hot on their wheels, Tesla is under pressure to deliver, and fast.
Alexis Georgeson: There’s already been one major reorg since Model S production started in 2012. The original end of line used to be right here… we straightened out the line so we could expand and increase production.
Alison van Diggelen: That’s Alexis Georgeson, a Tesla spokesperson who explains in great detail the 7-day process that transforms a roll of aluminium into a shiny electric car. The two-week reorg and retooling in 2014 means that Tesla now has over 1000 state of the art robots, which helped ramp-up production by over 100% last year.
A separate production line for the Model 3 is planned and hard lessons from earlier models will help speed up their manufacture, especially more in-house capabilities and more thorough supplier validation. Musk says the new Model 3 will be designed to be easy to make.
Alexis Georgeson: We’re constantly learning and innovating. The great thing about Tesla is that so much is in-house and that we are so nimble.
Alison van Diggelen: I asked about the long delays in the Model X, largely caused by the flashy Falcon Wing doors.
What’s the trade off between hubris and caution at Tesla?
Alexis Georgeson: Our mission is not just to accelerate sustainable energy and transportation …You’re creating new features that haven’t been done before in the auto industry. With that comes natural growing pains…
Georgeson: The thing that’s missed there is the capital-intensive nature of the auto industry. Especially for a company like Tesla that’s ramping production so quickly…
Alison van Diggelen: Here’s Elon Musk…
Elon Musk: Tesla is hellbent on being the best in manufacturing… We believe that there is more potential for innovation in manufacturing than in design of the car, by a long shot.
Alison van Diggelen: Musk says the first Model 3 deliveries will start in late 2017. If he can prove naysayers wrong again, the majority of Model 3 reservation holders might see their cars coming off the production line in Silicon Valley within the next two years…
Read more Fresh Dialogues reports on Tesla here (scroll down for archives back to 2012)
Last night, I joined the BBC’s Business Matters to discuss the launch of Tesla’s Model 3 and the remarkable 325,000 deposits it garnered in just seven days. Reports suggest that even Tesla CEO, Elon Musk was surprised by the number of people prepared to pay $1000 to get in line for this mass market electric car. It appears that his “Tesla secret masterplan” had been intentionally leaked. Does this mean that the Model 3 represents an iPhone moment for the auto industry?
Here is a transcript of our conversation and a longer version of the report which aired on the BBC World Service. The transcript has been edited for length and clarity. Listen to the podcast here: Tesla discussion starts at 26:46
Roger Hearing: The Tesla 3…is that the way forward for electric cars? Now Alison, you’ve been having a look at the new Tesla…can you enlighten us on that?
Alison van Diggelen: Last Thursday, Tesla finally unveiled its “affordable” mass market car, the Model 3. Hours before it was actually unveiled, thousands of Tesla fans stood in line, sight unseen, to reserve one. This was a phenomenon, especially here in Silicon Valley where Tesla is headquartered and where they actually build the cars. I talked with several people who waited in line, and one Tesla fan who drives a Tesla (Roadster) but is just not interested in the Model 3…The key question now is: can Tesla deliver?
Small business owner, Tom Poppitz was one of thousands in Silicon Valley, to line up at one of Tesla’s six showrooms here. Each customer was prepared to put down a $1000 deposit for a car they’d never seen.
Poppitz:There was a lot of very well educated people in that line…they were going to buy this thing, no matter what it looked like…they were excited about it changing the world, changing the auto industry…
He likened it to an Apple product release, only better because it was sight unseen.
But what motivated Poppitz to get in line?
Poppitz: I’m not generally excited about cars…I’m a self-professed tightwad. The value proposition for this car is so completely different: frees you from buying gas… but my primary motivation: It changes macroeconomics in a major scale. Transitioning to electric cars can cure our trade deficits, it can have a quantum effect on our economy….
But not everyone is so optimistic that Tesla can actually deliver a world-changing product. I spoke with Anton Wahlman, a tech analyst.
He says Tesla’s two greatest challenges will be achieving profitability at $35,000 – where margins are razor thin – and beating some tough competition.
Wahlman: The unsexy factor in the whole equation…the product can be beautiful and all, but getting to an acceptable level of profitability is an extremely significant challenge.
He points to the brutal competition Tesla will face by the time it delivers its first Model 3’s in late 2017/and 2018. The Chevy Bolt hits showrooms later this year, and BMW, Audi, Jaguar, and others are in fast pursuit.
Walhman predicts that Tesla may face the same fate that Nissan did in 2010, when its all-electric Leaf started shipping …Many reservation holders demanded their deposits back.
Wahlman: (Nissan) They had zero competition… Tesla already has some competition …that will intensify greatly in ‘17 and by 2018, it’ll be in full bloom.
He acknowledges Tesla has a more attractive product than Nissan and its charging network is a moat-like barrier to competitors. But the Model 3 is not for every Tesla fan.
Silicon Valley techie, Carlos Morales drives a Roadster, Tesla’s limited edition sports car. He loves the quiet acceleration, and speed of his Roadster, but wasn’t prepared to reserve a Model 3. Why not?
Morals: I see a Roadster once a month… 300,000 Model 3’s have been reserved. There’s going to be a lot of them, that’s wonderful for the planet and Tesla. But it’s not going to be as exclusive.
There’s always going to be a class, a group of people who are looking at that.
Despite questions of reliability and servicing challenges pouring cold water on last week’s euphoria, Tesla true believers feel they were part of automotive history. Will this be an iPhone moment for the auto industry? At least 270,000 people hope so.
[Report ends]
Alison van Diggelen: Carlos speaks for probably a small segment of people who won’t be attracted by the Model 3. But as of this morning they’ve now had over 325,000 willing to put down a $1000 deposit…that level of interest is unprecedented in the auto industry. A lot of people are drawing analogies with the iPhone. There’s a euphoria about this new product…the difference is: people are going to have to wait about two years before the car is actually delivered.
Roger Hearing: That’s a very long time, isn’t it? Isn’t that a lack of attraction in itself?
Alison van Diggelen: The analyst, Anton Wahlman emphasized that it’s not that these hardcore fans aren’t prepared to wait…but in the two year period, they may be tempted off their deposits. Wahlman pointed out all the competition. Jaguar is even coming out with an electric vehicle, Audi…the Chevy Bolt will actually be in dealerships this Christmas. I did speak with one big Tesla fan – Washington Post columnist, Vivek Wadhwa – and asked him if he’d be tempted by the Bolt. He said it was like comparing a rotary phone with the iPhone. That’s the level of fanboy-ism there is in Silicon Valley.
Madhavan Narayanan: We’re not discussing cars anymore. We’re discussing new patented technologies. If Tesla has patented technology that makes it distinguishable and superior to other electric cars, we’re talking about a paradigm shift, not simply a better car.
Roger Hearing: The big thing here in Britain is where you can actually get the charge? It’s fine in big urban areas… and for short journeys. Would that be true in America where there are a lot of very long journeys and presumably not a lot of electrical stopping places along the way?
Alison van Diggelen: Yes, that is a big issue. Anton Wahlman pointed out that Tesla has this (proprietary) network for these long distance drives. They have hundreds of superchargers, (fast chargers) all over the U.S. They’ve introduced them in Europe too for people doing long journeys in their Tesla Model S. Wahlman described this like as a moat around Tesla’s business model and no other electric vehicle has something similar. So that could actually be an advantage (for Tesla). These other companies will have to catch up. With mass market, compared to a luxury car, there is a point: most luxury car buyers own homes and they can charge at home. If you’re living in an apartment, then that’s a whole different thing. That’s definitely a challenge, but Elon Musk is quite the visionary and he is aware of this and they are planning to double or triple their Tesla charging network.
Roger Hearing: That must be a problem in India, Madhavan, where do you charge these electric cars?
Madhavan Narayanan: Let’s look at what happened with cellphones. The paradigm of Tesla is strikingly similar. You have cell towers everywhere and they carry the signals. Why not set up a charging station network? To use Silicon Valley’s favorite expression:I see an electric vehicle ecosystem emerging. There will be new winners and losers in the game.
Roger Hearing: An electric car ecosystem? That’s a concept to carry around, as we go into what does seem to be the electric car era.
“The idea itself can have a deeply transformative effect on our planet, and on our lives. It brings the world closer together. Think about the impact of the Wright Brothers’ invention of flight, and their Kitty Hawk moment, what a pivotal moment that was.” Shervin Pishevar
Pishevar is putting his money where his mouth is. His company Sherpa Capital contributed to the Series A funding, along with Formation8, Caspian VC and Zhen Capital. All have renewed their commitment to the company today and were joined by other unnamed investors.
“All of our Series A investors – Formation8, Sherpa Capital, Caspian Venture Capital, Zhen Capital and other individual investors – are also participating in the Series B.” Hyperloop Technologies CEO, Rob Lloyd
3.How will it make money?
The prospect of commuters traveling on land between SF and LA in 30 minutes (and between other similarly spaced cities at super high speed) has people talking about how the Hyperloop could revolutionize the personal transportation industry and urban planning, however the really big financial opportunity appears to be in freight.
Cofounder Pishevar told me that they’re focused on a potential freight market of $150 Trillion over the next 20 years.
“We definitely see the benefits of transporting cargo…ports being too small…ships are sitting offshore five miles…we want to streamline the process, make it a lot more elegant, a lot cleaner for the environment.” Erin Kearns
4. What’s the timeline?
CTO Brogan Bambrogan says that the company is planning to build a full-scale full-speed Hyperloop test track in the California desert by the end of 2016. He’s channeling Elon Musk in driving his Hyperloop team forward.
“The team is trying to operate on a timescale that is of Elon Musk ilk…By 2017/18, we’ll have shovels in the ground in a couple of locations,” Brogan BamBrogan
5. What are the challenges?
Despite this optimistic timeline, the team has many challenges to overcome before it can make the hyperloop a profitable operation, not least of which are the technical hurdles.
I spoke with Mark Jacobson, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Stanford University. He compares it to California’s High Speed Rail project, and is convinced the hyperloop will be much more expensive to build and operate, due to the need to keep a near-vacuum in the tube. Then he lists the technical challenges…heat build up, leakage from the vacuum tube, keeping a uniform distance between the pods and the tube.
And then there are the regulatory issues like zoning, rights of way, permits etc. These challenges make it more likely that Hyperloop Technologies’ first operational project will be overseas, possibly in Asia, where regulations are less strict.
6. What about rival HTT?
Hyperloop Transportation Technologies (HTT) has said it will start work on a 5-mile demo track in California’s Quay Valley early next year. Despite partnerships with Aecom, Oerlikon and key industry partners; this rival team of 400 is not yet funded.
I interviewed HTT’s CEO Dirk Ahlborn by phone in September and he confirmed plans to close a $150 Million first round of VC funding in mid-2016. He is convinced that, although his team is mostly part-time, he has “the best people in Japan, China and India and they’re doing it because they believe in the project, not for the money.”
When I asked him what would stop some team members moving to rival companies, he cited his team’s stock option contracts, and their “moral obligation” to stay with HTT.
Ahlborn didn’t rule out joining forces with Hyperloop Technologies and said that synergies exist between the two companies.
Yesterday I asked Ahlborn about his attitude to Hyperloop Technologies:
“We are 2 years older (than Hyperloop Technologies) and rather than spinning a wheel with a motor with an air bearing on top, we are getting ready to build the first passenger version in Quay Valley.” Dirk Ahlborn
I wondered whether the severe water shortages could impact the planned Quay Valley “Model Town for the 21st Century” in California’s drought-starved central valley, and hence his Hyperloop demo track which is part of the entertainment destination development.
“We are independent from the actual Quay Valley project so it doesn’t concern us, but I don’t expect them to have issues as they have plenty of water rights.” Dirk Ahlborn
Ahlborn said that HTT will be releasing a schedule of future progress very soon. Hyperloop watchers eagerly await the next move in the race to complete stage one – a working hyperloop prototype.
He learned a lot about user experience from Bit Auto, a popular web portal in China and his first business success. He’s now built a global startup – with facilities in Beijing, Shanghai, Silicon Valley, London and Munich. The global workforce is 2000.
NextEV US headquarters in San Jose is 85,000 square feet. When remodeling is complete, it will house a 10,500 square feet auto lab.
The “living wall” in NextEV US Headquarters in San Jose, CA
Poppitz: There was a lot of very well educated people in that line…they were going to buy this thing, no matter what it looked like…they were excited about it changing the world, changing the auto industry…
Morals: I see a Roadster once a month… 300,000 Model 3’s have been reserved. There’s going to be a lot of them, that’s wonderful for the planet and Tesla. But it’s not going to be as exclusive.
Madhavan Narayanan: We’re not discussing cars anymore. We’re discussing new patented technologies. If Tesla has patented technology that makes it distinguishable and superior to other electric cars, we’re talking about a paradigm shift, not simply a better car.
